Learning From Animals: Understanding Your Animal Tendencies To Succeed In Sports Betting
In the world of sports betting, everyone has a strategy whether you know it or not. If you rely on lady luck and randomly chooses a team, that is a strategy. It is the strategy of random chance :). Some rely on profiles or metrics to determine who to take. Others rely on handicapping and team strengths. Bottom line, everyone has a strategy!
It is interesting to note that mankind has been examining the topic of honing skills of predictive insight for thousands of years. The wisdom from these discoveries have been written into stories told around the world. These stories are meant to teach a concept in a way that is easy for us to all understand. Story telling was used as a vehicle to impart knowledge and wisdom that was not dull or boring. The telling of these tales was a manner intended to utilize and capture a student’s interest! This made it so the lessons could be absorbed and applied to everyday living. So without further ado, I’m going to share with you some stories.
The Swan and the Crow
Our first story we will examine dates from the 8th or 9th century. It originated in India, and it features a Swan and a Crow as protagonists. The Swan professes there is only one way to fly. The Crow says that is incorrect and boasts that he has numerous ways to fly. As the story unfolds, the Crow proceeds to demonstrate his skills to the Swan through a complex display of aerial acrobatics, dives and circles.
However, the Crow becomes exhausted showing off his different maneuvers and finds himself over a massive ocean with nowhere to land. The Crow is now barely flying dragging his tail and beak along the surface of the water. The Swan flies down to the Crow and puts him on his back and flies him to safety. Before leaving him at a nearby island to recover, the Swan asks the expected question to the Crow which is: “Which of the hundred ways of flying is this?”
The moral of this story is that although complexity can offer more variety, sometimes a simpler approach will keep you alive. Have you known people in the world of sports betting that perhaps could benefit from this wisdom?
The Frog and the Two Fish
Another story from the 14th Century features two fish and one frog. The first fish was called Satabuddhi (Hundred-wit) and the other called Sahasrabuddhi (Thousand-wit). The frog was called Ekabuddhi (Single-wit). The three protagonists occupy the same pond and overhear the talk of two fishermen who stop by to survey the waters. While talking, the fishermen mention that they will return the next day to fish. The frog becomes anxious and begins to panic!
Thousand-wit tells the frog to not worry, because his strategic skill can help them survive through maneuvers among the many underwater pathways in the pond. Hundred-wit also affirms that up until now, neither the wind nor the sun’s rays have penetrated the pond and so the fishermen will have no luck in catching them. The frog (Single-wit) however is not convinced, and decides to flee the pond in search of safer waters.
The end of the story has the two fish being caught and eaten, whereas the frog survives to live another day. The wisdom from this story is that the more complex and sophisticated approach is not always the right approach. The KISS (Keep It Simple Stupid) model has a real place in both life and sports betting. Often the simple approach can yield more positive results.
The Fox and the Cat
Another ancient fable first published in the 15th century by a scholar recounts the tale of the Fox and the Cat. Similar in theme, the basic story is that the Fox and the Cat meet and begin to discuss the many dodges and tricks they have for maneuvering in times of danger.
The Fox boasts of having numerous strategies involving running, jumping, turning and hiding. The Cat confesses to having only one: To climb a tree until the danger passes. The Fox ridicules the Cat for having such a simple approach and argues that his way is the correct way.
Soon after their conversation hunters arrive in the woods with dogs. The Cat quickly climbs a tree to wait for danger to pass. The Fox engages in his many moves to avoid danger. After a period of time, the Fox tires from his running and being chased. The hunters catch and kill the Fox while the Cat sits patiently waiting in the tree (and survives).
Once again we have a kernel of wisdom being presented that simplicity in approach and patience is often the right way to avoid danger.
The Fox and the Hedgehog
Philosopher Isaiah Berlin published an essay in 1953 entitled ‘The Fox and the Hedgehog’ based on a Greek poem that relays the statement: ‘The Fox knows many things, whereas the Hedgehog knows one thing’. The poem is considered to have its origins in the fable ‘The Fox and the Cat’ as described earlier. This publication became one of Berlin’s most popular works, as it extrapolates on this old slice of wisdom, and seeks to divide writers and thinkers into two categories:
- The Hedgehog: Ones who view the world through a single idea
- The Fox: Ones who draw experiences from a wide variety of sources and experiences and cannot be pinned down into a single idea
Berlin’s work was the later the influence for Political Psychology Professor Philip E Tetlock, who conducted experiments on the accuracy of forecasting and predictions in a book he published in 2005 entitled “Expert Political Judgment: How Good Is It? How Can We Know?”
In his research Tetlock compared two types of predictions: Human prediction from experts, and computer algorithms. He asked 284 experts in a variety of fields to make a total of 28,000 predictions. He ran the same number of predictions through a computer algorithm. He also created a program to select results completely at random.
The results were that the human predictions were only slightly more accurate than a random game of chance and much less accurate than the complex computer algorithm that followed a concise pattern without variation.
The study draws the analogy of the Fox and the Hedgehog to leaders in various positions around the world, including demonstrating that forecasters in the biggest media outlets were especially bad at their predictions. The published work has received numerous awards and recognitions from universities, as well as the Woodrow Wilson award for the best book published in government, politics or internal affairs.
The Danger of Being Too Clever
The underlying theme from all these stories I am sharing is that there is a potential danger in being too clever. At times, a person involved in the world of sports betting can get too complex with their thinking process and abandon successful ways to profit on sports.
Have you ever experienced the feeling that your head was spinning with too many facts and figures? Perhaps you might want to consult these ancient fables and do a little reading tonight before bedtime. You might discover some unique insight into your own strategies by absorbing the wisdom from these thousand year old stories.
You could also say that these stories suggest that the simplest approach based on your knowledge is the right approach. On the flip-side, if you don’t study and understand the landscape before venturing forth, your results can be more like a random game of chance because the subject is too complex.
So the real message is: Continue to read my sports investing blog daily!! Your knowledge will increase and your betting decisions will become much simpler and more profitable :). All kidding aside, make sure you apply the simplest approach for the situation and use as much information as you can to help make that approach. Use me as a resource for anything you need and never hesitate to email me at: firstname.lastname@example.org